Backcasting: Validation of Preconstruction Wind Energy Assessments

Accurate pre-construction energy estimates are paramount to wind project development and financing. To validate that accuracy and improve methodologies, UL Solutions is committed to periodic comprehensive reviews of the performance of its pre-construction energy estimates, relative to operational evidence to assess any P50 biases. This is achieved through a study it calls a Backcast.

UL Solutions presents the findings of its recent Offshore wind energy Backcast, and discusses the underlying data, findings and methodology adjustments.

The Backcast is based on over 30 wind farms and, considering hundreds of operational wind farm years, P50 biases will be identified and attributed to various components of the analysis. Deeper dives into wake modeling, availability losses and turbine performance will be summarized, and the results of any adjustments to pre-construction modeling approaches will be presented. In doing so, UL Solutions will demonstrate how its wake modeling approaches perform, how SCADA data is utilized to inform availability relative to IEC standards and preconstruction assumptions, and how UL Solutions’ body of testing and engineering experience is leveraged to inform turbine performance and other plant losses.

Ultimately, UL will show how the tools and methods it develops and employs bring confidence to the energy assessments it supplies to the market.